RESEARCH BULLETIN: Housing realities for low- to moderate-income households

New research from Livingston and Associates in NZ, funded by the Building Research Levy via BRANZ indicates the number of low- to moderate-income households with limited equity is increasing. How do we meet the needs of this vulnerable cohort? Here is the first of four papers addressing the findings of the initial research.

Limited assets or equity means people and families are excluded from public and council housing because they do not meet the very low income or other eligibility criteria. Consequently, they are trapped in a housing market that is increasingly unable to deliver secure, affordable housing. 


Young working households, Māori whanau and seniors in retirement are particularly vulnerable to these conditions and their long-term secure housing outlook is poor.


These households do not have sufficient capital to access sustainable affordable housing, whether through owner-occupation or renting. Finding secure housing solutions for these households by leveraging their limited but useful assets would relieve pressure on the current rental market as well as public housing. 


Previous research indicates there are a growing number of households that would benefit from low- to limited-equity housing models, including forms of ownership, secure rental or other alternative tenure forms.


The focus of this research project, Housing solutions for low to moderate income households with limited equity (funded by BRANZ from the Building Research Levy) is to build our understanding of how other comparable countries provide housing for these households, including the housing tenure models and the policy and funding settings needed for the success of these models. 


In the New Zealand context, we will establish the size, characteristics and locations of these submarkets, test economic feasibility and the level of housing subsidy required and adopt a systems-based approach to build on our understanding of the opportunities to grow these models. Our focus will be to use the systems analysis to develop potential housing solutions.


This is the first in a series of research updates providing an update on the project’s initial findings. This research update focuses on some of the key trends on the composition of low- to moderate-income households with limited equity. Future updates will provide information on international research findings, interviews with New Zealand organisations working with these households and potential solutions as the research progresses.


Key terms


Definitions include:


• A “low income household” has a gross annual income of less than $50,000 per annum.

• A “moderate income household” has a gross annual income of between $50,000 and less than $100,000.

• A “stressed household” is paying more than 30% of their gross household income in housing costs. Housing costs include expenses for rent, mortgages (both principal and interest), property rates and building-related insurance

• A “severely stressed household” is paying more than 50% of their gross household income in housing costs.

• A household’s “net worth” is the sum of all their assets, less any outstanding liabilities.

• A “not owned” household is where the occupiers do not own the dwelling they live in (also referred to as “renters”).

• An “owner occupied” household is where the occupiers own the dwelling they live in.


Housing market outcomes


Households’ ability to affordably 1 pay today’s housing costs is directly influenced by the level of their income. 


We have utilised Statistics New Zealand data to identify the housing outcomes and sizes of various groups of low- to moderate-income households. These include both renters and owner-occupiers across a range of age cohorts. 


The tables below present the results of our analysis on the affordability of their housing costs and net worth. 


One in four low-income 2 and one in ten moderate-income 3 renters are paying more than half their gross household income in rent. Clearly, the market is not delivering outcomes that are sustainable for these households in the medium- to long-term.


Table 1 presents the number and proportion of households, by tenure and household income, paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs.

Table 1: Households paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs

Table 1:  Households paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs

A total of 82,800 households that do not own the dwelling they live in are paying over half their income in rent, whereas 55,100 owner occupiers are paying over 50% of their household income in housing costs. Of these households paying over 50% of their income toward housing costs, 97% have gross incomes of less than $100,000 per annum.


Table 2 presents the age profile of low- to moderate-income households by tenure paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs.

Table 2: Low- to moderate-income households by age of the household reference person paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs.

Table 2: Low- to moderate-income households by age of the household reference person paying more than 30%, 40% and 50% of their gross household income in housing costs

Younger not-owned households had the highest proportion of stressed households. Additionally, over one-in-four not-owned households with a reference person aged less than 30 years were paying more than half their gross household income in housing costs. Older not-owned households also had a significant proportion of households paying more than half their gross household income in housing costs, with over one-in-seven being severely stressed.



Table 3 presents the net worth (total assets less total liabilities) of low- to moderate-income households by tenure and age of the household reference person.

Table 3: Net worth of low- to moderate-income households by tenure and age of the household reference person

Table 3: Net worth of low- to moderate-income households by tenure and age of the household reference person

Even though both groups have ongoing housing expenses, not-owned households have significantly lower net worth than owner-occupied households with a mortgage of a similar age. 



It would appear not-owned households have limited financial capacity to cope with a financial shock when compared to owner-occupiers. 


These initial research findings clearly indicate that low- to moderate-income households are facing affordability challenges. Over 100,000 households (both owner-occupier and renters) are paying more than 50% of their gross income in housing costs. Nearly half of those households are under 30 or over 65 years old, showing significant housing stress for both younger and older households. 


In addition, not-owned households have limited net worth available to draw upon should they face a financial shock. This demonstrates the importance of identifying solutions that can provide sustainable housing options matched to their incomes and net worth.

Download: Housing solutions for low to moderate income households

[1] Housing costs are defined as affordable when they are no greater than 30% of a household’s gross income.

[2] Low income households are those earning up to $50,000 per annum from all sources including all government benefits and the accommodation supplement.

[3] Moderate income households are those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 per annum from all sources including all government benefits and the accommodation supplement.

Share This Article

Other articles you may like

Harry Smith, new Australasian Housing Institute CEO
April 2, 2025
Harry Smith has recently commenced his role at the ahi as CEO after 26 years in the social services and government sectors across a range of diverse responsibilities. Harry brings a wealth of sector-specific knowledge and experience, supporting our members and our wider community.
February 14, 2025
It is with great pleasure that we announce nominations are now open for the ahi: 2025 Brighter Future Awards .
February 14, 2025
About the Australasian Housing Institute The Australasian Housing Institute (ahi) is a professional body for workers in the social and affordable housing and Specialist Homelessness Service (SHS) sectors across Australia and New Zealand. It has Branch Committees in each state and territory, as well as in New Zealand. The ahi is submitting a response to the Draft NSW Homelessness Strategy (the Strategy), representing the collective feedback of the NSW Branch Committee, with the support of the entire ahi organization. With over 2,000 members across NSW, ahi members work in both government and non-government housing organizations. The ahi has a long history of collaborating with SHS, Specialist Disability Services, and other mainstream services, including health, education, and local councils. For the past 25 years, ahi has been proudly delivering training for industry housing professionals across a wide range of areas, including tenancy management, asset management, and governance. The ahi also hosts masterclasses and networking events to support its members. The ahi provides professional development to the workforce through: Training and knowledge-building on a range of issues relevant to social housing professionals, from induction programs for new workers to advanced and specialized training in areas such as asset management, trauma-informed approaches with applicants and tenants, personal development, and community participation. A mentoring program that pairs experienced professionals with newer or younger members to help them achieve their career aspirations and goals. A certification program for social housing professionals to uphold professional standards and ensure success in their area of expertise. Leading the Annual Brighter Future Awards, which recognize excellence in the social housing industry. Promoting active, engaged, and connected membership through the delivery of topical events, seminars, webinars, masterclasses, and more. As a member-based professional body, the ahi is uniquely positioned to build trust, enhance skills, and foster relationships across both the government and non-government sectors, as well as between organizations. Summary The ahi congratulates the NSW Government on its significant investment of $6.6 billion in the 2024 budget, aimed at tackling the unprecedented housing stress and the rising numbers of individuals experiencing homelessness driven by the ongoing rental crisis in both the private rental and social housing sectors. The Strategy for 2025-2035 is highly commendable, with its three core goals—rare, brief, and non-repeated—standing out as ambitious and impactful objectives aimed at addressing homelessness. These goals are set to bring about significant changes in the social housing system and provide a clear policy framework to guide efforts toward achieving meaningful outcomes over the next decade. The ahi recognizes the importance of this Strategy and the critical role that the social and affordable rental housing system plays in meeting these goals, emphasizing the need for genuine, whole-of-government collaboration in delivering results. This approach involves collaboration across government, the not-for-profit community housing sector, and mainstream services, all supported by SHS’s within a Housing First framework and guided by a clear governance structure. It marks a shift from a deficit-driven perspective to a solution-focused, positive approach. The success of this transformation relies on collective efforts through co-design, co-evaluation, and co-delivery, ensuring the long-term effectiveness of the change. For this paradigm shift to succeed, it will require a skilled, committed, and dedicated workforce, as outlined in Principle 8 (The Workforce is Strong and Capable). Recognizing the need for a sustained, locally connected workforce is crucial to addressing the diverse needs of individuals experiencing homelessness across all three phases of their journey. In its feedback on the Strategy, the ahi emphasizes the importance of focused attention on homelessness and social housing workforce planning, professional development, industry support, and the need for culturally competent workers—both paid and voluntary—who bring diversity, inclusion skills, and lived experience. Finally, the ahi urges that Principle 8, which highlights the strength and capability of the workforce, be prioritized, particularly in supporting First Nations people experiencing housing stress and homelessness, with a long-term vision extending beyond the next 10 years. Detailed response The following is more a detailed response from the ahi to the questions outlined in the consultation paper for the Strategy. SECTION 1: The Guiding Principles of the Strategy 1. What do we need to consider as we implement services and system reform guided by these principles (total 9) over the next 10 years? As we implement services and system reform guided by these principles over the next 10 years, the ahi suggests the following approaches be prioritized: Workforce planning should be a key focus in the first rolling action plan (2025-2027), with an emphasis on forecasting the ongoing skills and competency needs throughout the life of The Strategy. This will ensure the workforce is equipped to meet evolving demands. Increasing the supply of dwellings to address crisis, transition, and permanent housing needs must be matched by a parallel increase in the workforce. This includes expanding both paid employees and volunteers within social housing, community housing organizations, and Specialist Homelessness Services (SHS). A well-supported workforce is essential to ensuring the successful and sustainable delivery of outcomes envisioned by the Strategy. Skilling workers who assist First Nations people experiencing homelessness should be prioritised. This requires a culturally competent workforce at all levels to provide high-quality services and ensure that First Nations people do not experience repeated homelessness. By focusing on cultural competence, we can foster better outcomes and long-term stability for these communities. 2. Which Principle should be prioritized and why? The ahi fully supports all nine Principles, with particular emphasis on Principle 8: Workforce is Strong and Capable, as being foundational. Addressing homelessness is a person-centered solution that requires culturally competent employees and volunteers who can establish strong, supportive networks with wraparound services at the local community level. This is essential to meeting the evolving needs and remains a high priority in the First Action Plan (2025-2027). Ongoing professional development for workers is crucial to ensuring long-term success in meeting the changing social, economic, and environmental needs of those living in quality housing. It is also vital for ensuring tenants not only live well but stay connected to their communities. Supporting the workforce’s safety and wellness is key to maintaining a capable, resilient workforce, which in turn ensures the best possible quality of housing, management, and support for tenants. SECTION 2: Strategy focus areas: 1. To make homelessness rare, what should NSW prioritise for action and why? The ahi believes that adequate funding for SHS’s is essential to ensure they are properly resourced to assist individuals at risk of or in a crisis state of homelessness at the point of need. The ability to identify risks and allocate resources effectively for intake assessments and service coordination is key to early intervention and prevention. A triage system is vital for facilitating positive outcomes, aiming to make homelessness a one-off experience. The ahi also supports dedicated funding for staff training and development in this field, recognizing its importance in preventing homelessness from becoming a long-term issue. Investing in training allows for timely and appropriate interventions, helping to break the cycle of homelessness early on. 2. What opportunities and risks are there for implementing actions under this outcome? Delaying action in assisting individuals experiencing homelessness can lead to a loss of faith and hope in the NSW housing system, pushing them toward the justice system or, in the case of older people or women escaping domestic violence, even premature death. Implementing this outcome presents an opportunity to build a culturally competent, and trauma-informed workforce, a key factor to transforming lives while simultaneously increasing the supply of housing. Supporting a resilient workforce, where high job satisfaction is fostered, creates committed and effective workers who can make a lasting difference. 3. What types (s) would be most useful to measure our impact and why? A key target in the First Action Plan (2025-2027) is to reduce the number of people on the social housing waitlist during the reporting period. This measure will serve as an indicator of success and validate the effectiveness of early intervention policies in preventing homelessness. Additionally, setting targets for the number of employees and volunteers in the social housing and SHS sectors, as well as tracking turnover rates, is essential to assessing the success of building a stronger, more capable workforce. 4. To make homelessness brief, what should NSW Priorities for action & why? Domestic violence, family abuse, and coercive control are major causes of homelessness among women, with the number of homeless women and children increasing according to the latest data. Adequate funding for this vulnerable group is a top priority. Supporting these women has a profound impact on their recovery, resilience, and ability to raise their children, leading to positive generational outcomes in the long term. The rising trend of older women experiencing homelessness for the first time also requires early intervention to prevent premature death. 5. What opportunity and risks are there for implementing actions under this outcome? The continued trend of women dying as a result of domestic violence and family abuse is deeply concerning. In 2024, 14 older women aged 55 and over were killed, a distressing statistic according to the Commissioner for Domestic and Family Violence, Michaela Cronin. These women are at a higher risk of vulnerability, often with no support systems to rely on. Implementing actions under this outcome presents a crucial opportunity to save lives, reduce the number of women experiencing both domestic violence and homelessness, and help them rebuild their lives. 6. What types of target(s) would be useful for measuring our impact and why? Reducing the number of women who die as a result of domestic violence and family abuse during the First Action Plan (2025-2027) is an important metric to track and report, demonstrating the efficacy of The Strategy. Individual success stories are powerful testimonies that show the goals of the Strategy are benefiting both individuals and the housing system. The skills required for employees and volunteers in this area demand dedicated funding and training resources. Implementing a measure to evaluate the outcomes of training courses would be valuable, helping to refine and improve the content and application of these programs. 7. To ensure homelessness is not repeated, what should NSW prioritize for action and why? First Nations people are overrepresented in experiencing homelessness and face significant challenges in breaking the cycle. Priority should be given to this group under the Housing First Principle, supported by skilled and capable staff and volunteers, to empower them and prevent repeat homelessness. Rental tenancy laws in NSW should be reviewed, particularly regarding the cessation of tenancy due to prolonged absences. Cultural customs related to death and bereavement (Sorry Business) should be recognised as acceptable reasons for absences and incorporated into tenancy policies. 8. What opportunities and risks are there in implementing actions under this outcome? The risk of not achieving the goals outlined in the National Agreement on Closing the Gap for the NSW Government is significant if priority is not given to properly housing and supporting First Nations people. There are valuable opportunities in collaborating with Aboriginal leaders through a co-design, co-evaluation, and co-delivery approach. Their collective commitment to improving the lives of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people can lead to positive outcomes in housing, health, education, employment, justice, safety, and inclusion. 9. What types of target(s) would be most useful to measure the impact and why? Increase the number of Aboriginal workers with certified qualifications across various areas of the Aboriginal housing sector. Aboriginal tenants depend on highly qualified and culturally competent workers and volunteers to help build their resilience and prevent repeated homelessness. Regular customer satisfaction surveys should be conducted to measure tenants’ satisfaction levels and identify areas of strength and improvement. Conclusion The ahi supports an ambitious supply growth program throughout the life of the Strategy to address homelessness in NSW. With 63,260 households (based on 2023-2024 data) currently on the waiting list, it is crucial to reduce this number over the next 10 years through the rolling action plans. Successfully delivering the Strategy will require a skilled, trauma-informed, and competent workforce to implement an integrated housing system. While workforce planning is mentioned as one of the nine principles, its lack of detailed planning is concerning. The ahi strongly suggests that the principles of co-design, co-evaluation, and co-delivery be incorporated from the outset in developing the rolling action plans. The ahi thanks the NSW Government for the opportunity to submit feedback and for its ongoing consideration of building a strong and capable workforce that is recognised and supported by a broad range of industries. The value of including people with lived experience and their unique knowledge and skills cannot be overlooked as an essential voice in this transformative process. Contact NSW Branch Committee - Australasian Housing Institute admin@housinginstitute.org www.theahi.com.au (02) 6494 7566 Date submitted: 11/2/25 Submitted to: Homelessness.strategy@homes.nsw.gov.au
More Articles